Tuesday, May 31, 2005

Polling: Updated Numbers

It has been about two weeks since I first posted moving averages of the national polls that have been released. I want to post now an update of the two moving averagers (7 poll and 15 poll) because things have changed quite significantly from my last post. These tables and charts are based on the polling data posted on Nodice.ca up to and including the poll for May 28, 2005 from Decima. For a more complete explanation of methodology please see my first post on this topic.

DateLib 7MACPC 7MANDP 7MABQ 7MA
April 11, 200535.8630.0317.3611.23
April 12, 2005 (3rd)31.5731.618.0711.66
April 23, 2005 (2nd)29.2334.717.9912.28
May 3, 2005 (2nd)31.3631.517.4313.14
May 11, 2005 (2nd)32.5130.7118.2713.31
May 17, 2005 (2nd)30.7131.1419.1412.57
May 19, 2005(1st)29.7232.4319.212.51
May 28, 200533.9629.918.7712.37
Note: The ordinals (e.g. 1st) listed above distinguish between two polls listed on Nodice.ca with the same date. Lower ordinals are further down the page.

And the 15-poll moving average:

DateLib 15MACPC 15MANDP 15MABQ 15MA
April 20, 200532.2432.1417.6911.69
April 29, 2005
29.31
33.4718.0312.43
May 17, 2005 (2nd)
31.37
31.218.2612.81
May 28, 200532.5230.3218.7512.79
Note: The ordinals (e.g. 1st) listed above distinguish between two polls listed on Nodice.ca with the same date. Lower ordinals are further down the page.

As promised for those who are graphically minded here are illustrations (click the images for larger versions):


Graph of seven poll moving averages. Posted by Hello

And the longer term representation:


Graph of 15 poll moving averages. Posted by Hello

Conclusions:
1. For both averages the Liberals have pulled ahead. In both cases their lead is not yet as significant as the Tory lead was at its height in April.
2. This point very well could be a turning point. If the Liberals solidify their lead and manage to break the 40 point barrier in an individual poll they will definitely have the momentum solidly behind them. Conversely if they cannot maintain their lead for more than four or five polls (the Tories led in 13 consecutive polls in April) the situation will remain volatile (both tactically and strategically) and the impetus for the CPC to force an election will not have been lifted.
3. I imagine that the summer recess will cause a sharp drop in polling frequency and unless an election call again becomes imminent (not likely) we will not have enough data to assess the permanence of this Liberal break-out until well into September or October.

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