Friday, April 29, 2005

New Polls and Momentum

As for these polls specifically, are they outliers? Maybe. Do they indicate a turning point where the Liberals will march to 45% support and a majority government within a couple of months? Probably not. Do they show that the Liberals have a chance at retaining a minority governmnet if an election were held this spring? Yes. But didn't we already know all that?

The Liberals seem to have the electorate behind them on election timing and have scored a couple of points for the budget deal. Martin himself proved in the early 1990s that fiscal conservatism sells in Canada it just takes a bit of convincing. This new deal definitely is not fiscally conservative. On the other hand Gomery is back under a publication ban. It seems that these bans work in the favour of the opposition because when they are invariably lifted the most salacious points of a few days' testimony is compressed into one "explosive" story.

After Guite the report from the forensic accountants is also coming up. I have no foregone conclusions about what this will say. The "no clear evidence to link the Liberal Party to illegal donations" and "there is a clear pattern of orchestrated money laundering" seem equally likely. Accountants aren't known for reporting in quotable, exciting terms. Mind you, it was one Sheila Fraser who opened up this giant can of worms in the first place.

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